Ni ubuhe buryo bukurikira? Nigute Abakurikirana Trend Binjiza Amafaranga muri XM

Ni ubuhe buryo bukurikira?

Inzira ikurikira nuburyo bwubucuruzi bukoresha, bushaka gufata inzira kumasoko yose, ukoresheje gucunga neza ingaruka.

Urimo kwibaza:

Kuki Gukurikira Gukora?

Impamvu iroroshye.

Amasoko atwarwa n'amarangamutima, umururumba, n'ubwoba.

Mugihe impande zombi ziyobowe, hazabaho inzira, kandi Abakurikirana Trend barashobora kwifashisha iki kintu.

Nizera rwose ko uburyo bwo kugenda bwibiciro busubirwamo. Nibisubirwamo bigenda bigaragara hejuru, hamwe nibitandukaniro bike. Ni ukubera ko amasoko atwarwa nabantu, kandi kamere muntu ntiyigera ihinduka. - Jesse Livermore

Hano hari ibice bike byubushakashatsi bikomeza kwemeza Ibikurikira:

• Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na M Potters bwerekana ko Trend ikurikira yunguka mumyaka 200 ishize
• Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na Kathryn M. Kaminski bwemeza ko Inzira ikurikira itera imbere mugihe cyibibazo
• Ukurikije icyerekezo cya Andreas Clenow asobanura uburyo amafaranga yo gukingira hamwe n’abacuruzi babigize umwuga bagiye barenza ingamba z’ishoramari gakondo

Noneho:

Inyuma yubu buryo bwubucuruzi, harabeshya amahame 5 yubucuruzi buri Mugenzi watsinze agomba gukurikiza.

Ibanga # 1: Gura hejuru no kugurisha hejuru

Tekereza:

Winjiye muri supermarket ukabona pome igurishwa, 3 kumadorari 1. Noneho, ubona pome kugirango urye neza.

Bukeye…

Urasubira muri supermarket hanyuma, umenye ko pome imwe igurishwa ubu, 3 kumadorari 5.

Wari kugura?

Birashoboka sibyo kuko igiciro kiri hejuru cyane. Wakunda gutegereza igiciro kigabanuka, cyangwa ugashaka ubundi buryo.

Noneho urimo kwibaza:

Kugura pome bifite aho bihuriye no gucuruza?

Byinshi.

Kuberako imyifatire yawe yo kugura pome izanwa mubikorwa byubucuruzi.

Dore icyo nshaka kuvuga…

Kurenza urugero kuri (USD / JPY):

Igiciro c'ibiciro (USD / JPY):

Kurenga kuri (EUR / USD):

Kurenza Ibicuruzwa kuri (EUR / USD):

Ikirangantego ni iyi…

Isoko ntirishobora kuba hejuru cyane kugirango rijye kure, cyangwa rito cyane kugirango rigufi.

Ibanga # 2: Kurikiza igiciro gusa

Urashaka kuba ukuri.

Nibyiza kumenya ko wahamagaye hejuru no kumasoko.

Ariko, mugihe utangiye guhanura kumasoko, biragushimisha, kandi ugatangira gutakaza ibintu bifatika kumasoko.

Ibi biganisha ku makosa yubucuruzi yica nka:

• Kwanga gufata igihombo kuko ushaka kuba ukuri
• Ugereranije mu gihombo cyawe kuko ushobora kubona "bihendutse" ubungubu
• Ihorere ubucuruzi kuko ushaka gusubiza igihombo cyawe

Noneho, ni iki ukwiye gukora aho?

Ikintu cyiza ushobora gukora nkumucuruzi, kurikiza igiciro.

Dore icyo nshaka kuvuga…

Kuzamuka kuri (NAS100USD):

Kumanuka kuri (XCU / USD):

Ni ubuhe buryo bwo gufata?

Niba ubonye igiciro kiri hasi cyane, hamwe no guhangana guhora kumeneka, amahirwe ni ukuzamuka. Ugomba kuba ureba kure.

Niba ubonye igiciro gikora hasi, hamwe ninkunga ihora ivunika, amahirwe ni ukumanuka. Ugomba kuba mugufi.

Ibanga # 3: Shira agace k'igishoro cyawe cy'ubucuruzi

Tekereza:

Ufite sisitemu yubucuruzi itsindira 50% yigihe hamwe na 1: 2 ibyago-ibihembo.

Kandi ufite hypothetical ibisubizo bya LLLLWWWW

Nuburyo bwunguka, sibyo?

Biterwa.

Niba ufite ibyago 30% byimigabane yawe, ushobora guturika mubucuruzi bwa 4 (-30 -30 -30 -30 = -120%)

Ariko…

Niba ufite ibyago 1% byimigabane yawe, wagira inyungu ya 4% (-1 -1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +2 +2 = 4%)

Kugira sisitemu yatsindiye idafite gucunga neza ibyago ntabwo bizakugeza ahantu hose.

Ukeneye sisitemu yatsinze hamwe no gucunga neza ibyago.

Kandi tutibagiwe…

Gukira ibyago byo kurimbuka ntabwo ari umurongo, ntibishoboka gukira iyo bigiye kure cyane.

Niba utakaje 50% yumushinga wawe, ugomba gusubiza inyuma 100% kugirango ucike nubwo. Nibyo, wasomye neza. 100%, ntabwo 50%.

Niyo mpamvu uhora ushaka guhura nigice cyinguzanyo zawe, cyane cyane iyo igipimo cyawe cyo gutsinda kiri munsi ya 50%.

None, ni bangahe ukwiye guhura n'ingaruka neza?

Ibi biterwa numubare watsinze, ibyago byo guhemba, no kwihanganira ingaruka. Ndagira inama yo guhura nibibazo bitarenze 1% kubucuruzi.

Ibanga # 4: Nta ntego zinyungu kugirango ubashe kugendera munzira nini

Nubwo abakurikira inzira badafite intego zinyungu, ntibisobanura ko tutava mubucuruzi bwacu.

Turasohoka mubucuruzi bwacu dukoresheje uburyo bwo guhagarika inzira, aho kugira intego yinyungu nko kurwanya inkunga nibindi.

Dore ingero ebyiri…

Inkunga ifata inyungu kuri (UKOIL):

Guhagarika inzira kuri (UKOIL):

Kurwanya bifata inyungu kuri (XAU / USD):

Guhagarika inzira kuri (XAU / USD):

Inzira zimwe zo gukurikirana igihombo cyawe ni:

• Kwimura impuzandengo
• Gufunga ibiciro birenze kwimuka
• Kurenga imiterere yibiciro
• Gutandukana
• Umubare wa ATR kure yimpinga / inkono

Niba ushaka kwiga byinshi, dore inzira 13 zo kuva mubucuruzi bwawe kugirango ugabanye ingaruka, kandi wunguke byinshi.

Igice gikomeye kijyanye na Trend Gukurikira ni kugendera kubatsinze. Kuberako uzareba intsinzi ntoya ihinduka igihombo mugihe ugerageza kugendera.

Ibi bivamo igipimo gito cyo gutsinda ariko, ibihembo byinshi kubibazo.

Ibanga # 5: Gucuruza amasoko yose kugirango wongere amahirwe yo gufata inzira

Amasoko amara umwanya munini kuruta kugendagenda. Kubwibyo, birumvikana kureba amasoko atandukanye, kugirango wongere amahirwe yo gufata inzira.

Abakurikirana inzira bagurisha ibintu byose uhereye kumafaranga, ubuhinzi, ibyuma, inkwano, ingufu, indice, umutobe wa orange, inda yingurube, nibindi.

Niba ubyibuka, amafaranga menshi yingenzi yari hagati mugice cya mbere ^cya 2014…

Ariko iyo urebye amasoko menshi, ushobora gufata inzira…

Ihindagurika rito kuri (EUR / USD):

Ihindagurika rito kuri (AUD / USD):

Ihindagurika ryiza nicyerekezo kuri (DE10YBEUR):

Ihindagurika ryiza kuri (SPX):

Ni ubuhe buryo bw'ingenzi bwo gufata?

Gucuruza mumasoko atandukanye bifasha kugabanya ibicuruzwa byawe no kuzamura inyungu zawe.

Kandi iri ni rimwe mu banga rikomeye ryihishe inyuma yabakurikirana.

Noneho, birashoboka ko urimo kwibaza:

Nigute Abakurikirana Trend binjiza amafaranga?

Tekereza ibi:

Isosiyete yitwa Orange imaze gucuruza cyane mu mezi 6 ashize.

Orange kuri ubu igurishwa $ 100 kandi ukeka ko yahawe agaciro. Wahisemo kugabanya imigabane 1000 ya Orange, ku $ 100 ufite intego yo kunguka $ 90, ukoresheje nta gihombo gihagarara.

Ukurikiza iri hame ryubucuruzi kumasoko yose ucuruza. Intego ntoya yinyungu idafite igihombo gihagarara.

Utekereza ko bizagenda bite?

Uzatsinda kenshi ariko, amaherezo, hazabaho ubucuruzi butakurwanya, kugeza uturitse konti yawe yubucuruzi.

Noneho tekereza…

Byagenda bite niba ndi kuruhande rwubucuruzi bwawe?

Nabura kenshi ariko, icyo nkeneye nubucuruzi bumwe kugirango byose bisubire inyuma, nibindi byinshi.

Kandi ubu nubucuruzi bumwe bwaguteye guturika konti yawe.

Ingero nke mubuzima busanzwe:

• Kugwa k'igihe kirekire cyo gucunga imari
• Kurimbuka kw'idubu
• Ikibazo cy’amafaranga yo mu 2008

Ibi byabaye byatumye abashoramari n'abacuruzi batakaza toni y'amafaranga. Ariko mumikino ya zeru, umuntu aratsindwa undi aratsinda.

Kandi uwatsinze abaye abayoboke ba Trend. Uru ni rwo rugabano rwacu.

Uburyo butandukanye kuri Trend ikurikira

Inzira ikurikira irashobora kugabanywa muburyo 2 butandukanye.

• Ubucuruzi butunganijwe
• Ubucuruzi bushishoza

Ubucuruzi butunganijwe

Ubucuruzi butunganijwe bwasobanuye amategeko agena ibyinjira, gusohoka, gucunga ibyago, no gucunga ubucuruzi.

Ubu buryo bukoreshwa cyane namafaranga akomeye nka Dunn, Winton, na MAN AHL.

Nubwo ubucuruzi butunganijwe bwikora, haracyari ibyemezo byingenzi umuyobozi agomba gufata.

Ibyemezo nka…

• Ni kangahe ushobora guhura n'ingaruka
• Ni ayahe masoko yo gucuruza

Umuyobozi agomba guhitamo ingaruka zishobora kwemerwa, amasoko agomba gukina, nuburyo bukabije bwo kongera no kugabanya ishingiro ryubucuruzi nkigikorwa cyo guhindura imigabane. Ibi byemezo nibyingenzi-akenshi bifite akamaro kuruta igihe cyubucuruzi. - Ed Seykota

Ubucuruzi bushishoza

Ubucuruzi bushishoza bufite amategeko adasobanutse agena ibyinjira, gusohoka, gucunga ibyago, no gucunga ubucuruzi.

Bisaba ko umucuruzi yitondera, gucuruza bishingiye ku isesengura rya tekiniki, hamwe no kwitabira byinshi.

Ubu buryo bukoreshwa cyane nabacuruzi bato kugiti cyabo.

Nubwo ubucuruzi bwubushake bufite ishingiro, buracyayoborwa na gahunda yubucuruzi.

Komeza rero…

Inzira Gukurikiza ingamba z'ubucuruzi

Noneho wize amabanga 5 ya Trend Gukurikira. Reka dushyireho amakuru yo gukoresha no guteza imbere ingamba zubucuruzi.

Gutezimbere Icyerekezo gikurikira, gikeneye gusubiza ibi bibazo 7:

1. Ni ikihe gihe urimo ucuruza
2. Ni kangahe ushobora guhura n'ingaruka kuri buri bucuruzi
3. Ni ayahe masoko ucuruza
4. Ni ubuhe buryo bukenewe mu ngamba zawe z'ubucuruzi?
5. Uzinjira he
6. Uzasohokera he niba wibeshye
7. Uzasohokera he niba ufite ukuri

Igihe ntarengwa

Ugomba guhitamo igihe gikwiranye na kamere yawe na gahunda.

Niba uri umuntu ufite akazi kumunsi, gucuruza amasaha 4 nimbonerahamwe ya buri munsi byakwira.

Gucunga ibyago

Ugomba guhura nigice cyinguzanyo zingana kuri buri bucuruzi kugirango urokoke ibibi byavutse. Komeza igihombo cyawe kitarenze 1% kuri buri bucuruzi.

Isoko ry'isi

Ugomba kuba ushobora gucuruza amasoko agera kuri 60 uhereye muriyi mirenge 5.

1. Ibicuruzwa byubuhinzi
2. Amafaranga
3. Imigabane
4. Ibiciro
5. Ibicuruzwa bitari ubuhinzi

Inzira Yigenga ikurikira Ingamba zubucuruzi

Niba 200ma yerekana hejuru kandi igiciro kiri hejuru yacyo, noneho ni kuzamuka (ibihe byubucuruzi).

Niba ari kuzamuka, noneho utegereze "ibizamini bibiri" ku nkunga ya dinamike (ukoresheje impuzandengo yimuka 20 50).

Niba igiciro cyikigereranyo cyingirakamaro inshuro ebyiri, noneho jya kure kubizamini bya gatatu (ibyinjira).

Niba ari birebire, noneho shyira igihombo cya 2 ATR mubyo winjiye (gusohoka niba wibeshye).

Niba igiciro kijya mu nyungu zawe, noneho fata inyungu mugihe buji ifunze hejuru ya 50ma (gusohoka niba ufite ukuri).

Ibinyuranye no kumanuka.

Dore ingero nke…

Gutsindira ubucuruzi kuri (XAU / USD):

Gutsindira ubucuruzi kuri (UKOIL):

Gutakaza ubucuruzi kuri (AUD / USD):

Niba ukunda ibintu bike mubucuruzi bwawe, noneho tekereza kuri ubu buryo bwubucuruzi…

Inzira Itunganijwe ikurikira Sisitemu ikora

Amategeko yo gucuruza

• Genda ndende mugihe igiciro gifunze hejuru muminsi 200 ishize
• Genda mugufi mugihe igiciro gifunze hasi muminsi 200 ishize
• Kugira igihombo gikurikira cyo gutakaza 6 ATR
• Ingaruka 1% yumushinga wawe kuri buri bucuruzi

Amasoko yaracurujwe

• Zahabu, Umuringa, Ifeza, Palladium, Platine
• SP 500, EUR / JPY, EUR / USD, Peso wo muri Mexico, Pound y'Abongereza
• Amerika T-bond, BOBL, BUXL, BTP, imyaka 10 ya Kanada
• Gushyushya Amavuta, Ingano, Ibigori, Ibiti, Isukari

Ibisubizo byanyuma

• Umubare wubucuruzi: 937 ubucuruzi
• Igipimo cyo gutsinda: 42.8%
• Garuka buri mwaka: 9.89%
• Igabanuka ntarengwa rya 24,12%.

Impanuro:

Niba ucuruza amasoko menshi, urashobora kunoza inyungu no kugabanya ibiva.

Noneho ushobora kwibaza… “Ese inzira ikurikira ikora kububiko?”

Nibyo, Ibikurikira birashobora gukoreshwa kumasoko yimigabane ariko usibye bike…

# 1: Irinde kugabanya imigabane kuko mugihe kirekire, isoko ryimigabane iri kuzamuka. Kubwibyo, nibyiza cyane kuguma kumurongo muremure cyangwa mumafaranga (kandi wirinde kugurisha mugufi).

# 2: Gira akayunguruzo ko gutondekanya imigabane kuko hari ibihumbi byinshi byimigabane irahari kandi ugomba guhitamo ibyo ushaka gucuruza.

Kandi hano hari uburyo bworoshye bwo Gukurikira Sisitemu yimigabane…

Amategeko yo gucuruza

• Genda ndende iyo ikigega gikubise hejuru yicyumweru 50
• Kugira igihombo cya 20% ikurikira
• Niba hari imigabane myinshi yo guhitamo, hitamo imigabane 20 yambere hamwe nigiciro kinini cyiyongereye mubyumweru 50 bishize
• Gura ntarengwa yimigabane 20 itarenze 5% yumushinga wawe wagenewe buri kigega

Amasoko yaracurujwe

• Ububiko buva kuri Russell 1000

Ibisubizo byanyuma:

• Umubare wubucuruzi: 707 ubucuruzi
• Igipimo cyo gutsinda: 48,66%
• Garuka buri mwaka: 12.81%
• Umubare ntarengwa wa 40,75%.

Impanuro:

Niba wongeyeho icyerekezo cyo kuyungurura, urashobora kunoza ibyagarutsweho no kugabanya kugabanuka.

Kandi hariya ufite.

Inzira ikurikira Sisitemu igufasha kunguka mumasoko y'idubu.

Tuvugishije ukuri, ingamba ntizihagije. Ahubwo, ugomba kwibanda ku micungire yawe yingaruka, amasoko yisi yose hamwe nubucuruzi buhoraho.

** Inshingano: Ntabwo nzabazwa inyungu cyangwa igihombo icyo ari cyo cyose gituruka ku gukoresha izi ngamba z'ubucuruzi. Imikorere yashize ntabwo yerekana imikorere izaza. Nyamuneka kora umwete wawe mbere yo guhura n'amafaranga winjije.