Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM
Amasu alandelayo okuhweba okuthrendayo avame ukuba amasu okuhweba aphumelela kakhulu ongawasebenzisa.

Njengomuntu oqalayo, angamasu angcono kakhulu okufanele uwalandele ngoba ngokuvamile kulula ukuwasebenzisa. Ngokuwasebenzisa ungafunda nokuthi imakethe isebenza kanjani futhi wenze inzuzo futhi.

Abathengisi abaningi, abaqalayo kanye nezingcweti ngokufanayo, bathembele kumathrendi. Abanye baze bathi ungaziphilisa ngephethini eyodwa nje, okungukuthi uma wazi ukuthi isetshenziswa kanjani.

Lokhu akusho ukuthi noma kunjalo ukuhweba okuthambekele kuhlala kulula.

Kungenzeka ukuthi uke wezwa inkulumo ethi ‘the trend is your friend’.

Nokho, kukhona enye inkulumo eyiqiniso futhi; "Umkhuba umngane wakho kuze kube sekupheleni lapho ugoba." Amazwi ahlakaniphile avela kumhwebi ochwepheshe u-Ed Seykota.


Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo?

Ukulandela Okuthrendayo kuyindlela yokuhweba, efuna ukuthwebula amathrendi kuzo zonke izimakethe, kusetshenziswa ukulawulwa kobungozi okufanele.

Uyazibuza:

Kungani i-Trend Following isebenza?

Isizathu silula.

Izimakethe ziqhutshwa imizwelo, ukuhaha nokwesaba.

Uma noma yiluphi uhlangothi lulawula, kuzoba nethrendi, futhi Abalandeli Abathrendayo bangakwazi ukusizakala ngalo mkhuba.

Ngikholelwa ngokuphelele ukuthi amaphethini okunyakaza kwentengo ayaphindwa. Amaphethini aphindaphindayo avela ngokuphindaphindiwe, anokwehluka okuncane. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi izimakethe ziqhutshwa abantu, futhi imvelo yomuntu ayishintshi. – Jesse Livermore

Nazi izingcezu ezimbalwa zocwaningo eziqinisekisa i-Trend elandelayo:

  • Izifundo ezenziwa ngabakwa-M Potters zifakazela ukuthi i-Trend Following inenzuzo kule minyaka engu-200 edlule
  • Ucwaningo luka-Kathryn M. Kaminski luqinisekisa ukuthi i-Trend Following iyachuma ngezikhathi zenhlekelele
  • Ukulandela inkambiso ka-Andreas Clenow uchaza ukuthi ama-hedge funds kanye nabadayisi abangochwepheshe bebelokhu bedlula amasu endabuko okutshala imali.

Manje:

Ngemuva kwale ndlela yokuhweba, kunezimiso zokuhweba ezi-5 okufanele zilandelwe yilowo nalowo Mlandeli Wethrendi ophumelelayo.


Imfihlo #1: Thenga okuphezulu futhi udayise kakhulu

Cabanga nje:

Ungena esitolo bese ubona ama-aphula ethengiswa, 3 ngo-$1. Ngakho-ke, uthola ama-apula ukuze uthole ukudla okulula okunempilo.

Ngosuku olulandelayo…

Ubuyela esitolo futhi, uyabona ukuthi ama-apula afanayo manje ayathengiswa, 3 ngama-$5.

Ungayithenga?

Mhlawumbe hhayi ngoba intengo iphezulu kakhulu. Ungathanda ukulinda intengo yehle, noma uthole ezinye izindlela.

Manje uyazibuza:

Ukuthenga ama-apula kuhlobene ngani nokuhweba?

Kakhulu.

Ngoba isimo sakho sengqondo ngokuthenga ama-apula silethwa emzamweni wakho wokuhweba.

Nakhu engikushoyo...

Kuthengwe ngokwedlulele (USD/JPY):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

I-Price Rally (USD/JPY):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Kudayiswe kakhulu nge-(EUR/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Okuthengisiwe okuningi nge-(EUR/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

I-takeaway yilokhu...

Imakethe ayilokothi iphakame kakhulu ukuthi ingahamba isikhathi eside, noma iphansi kakhulu ukuze ibe mfushane.


Imfihlo #2: Vele ulandele intengo

Ufuna ukulunga.

Kumnandi ukwazi ukuthi ubize abaphezulu nabaphansi emakethe.

Kodwa-ke, lapho uqala ukwenza izibikezelo emakethe, kufiphaza ukwahlulela kwakho, futhi uqala ukulahlekelwa umbono wezimakethe.

Lokhu kuholela emaphutheni abulalayo okuhweba afana nalawa:

  • Ukwenqaba ukulahlekelwa ngoba ufuna ukulunga
  • Isilinganiso sokulahlekelwa kwakho ngoba ungayithola "eshibhile" manje
  • Phindisela ukuhweba ngoba ufuna ukubuyisela ukulahlekelwa kwakho

Manje, yini okufanele uyenze esikhundleni salokho?

Into engcono kakhulu ongayenza njengomhwebi, vele ulandele intengo.

Nakhu engikushoyo...

I-Uptrend on (NAS100USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

I-Downtrend on (XCU/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Iyiphi i-takeway?

Uma uqaphela ukuthi intengo yenza ukwehla okuphezulu, ukumelana nokuphuka njalo, amathuba okuthi inyuke kakhulu. Kufanele ubheke isikhathi eside.

Uma ubona intengo yenza ukwehla okuphansi, ngosekelo lwehla njalo, kungenzeka ukuthi i-downtrend. Kufanele ubheke ukufushane.


Imfihlo #3: Faka engcupheni ingxenye yemali yakho yokuhweba

Cabanga nje:

Unohlelo lokuhweba oluwina u-50% wesikhathi ngomvuzo wobungozi ongu-1:2.

Futhi unomphumela wokuqagela we-LLLLWWWW

Iwuhlelo olunenzuzo, akunjalo?

Kuya ngesimo.

Uma ubeka engcupheni u-30% wokulingana kwakho, uzoqhuma ngokuhweba kwe-4 (-30 -30 -30 -30 = -120%).

Kodwa…

Uma ubeka engcupheni u-1% wokulingana kwakho, uzoba nenzuzo engu-4% (-1 -1 -1 -1 +2 +2 +2 +2 = 4%).

Ukuba nesistimu yokuwina ngaphandle kokulawula ubungozi ngendlela efanele ngeke kukuyise ndawo.

Udinga isistimu yokuwina enokulawulwa kobungozi ngendlela efanele.

Futhi ngingakhohlwa...

Ukubuyiselwa engozini yencithakalo akukona umugqa, ngeke kwenzeke ukuthi ululame uma kujula kakhulu.

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Uma ulahlekelwa u-50% wemali yakho, udinga ukubuyisela u-100% ukuze uphule. Yebo, ufunda kahle. 100%, hhayi 50%.

Kungakho uhlale ufuna ukubeka engcupheni ingxenye yemali yakho, ikakhulukazi uma isilinganiso sakho sokuwina singaphansi kwama-50%.

Ngakho-ke, kufanele uzibeke engozini engakanani ngempela?

Lokhu kuncike esilinganisweni sakho sokuwina, ubungozi bokuklomelisa, kanye nokubekezelela kwakho ubungozi. Ngeluleka ngokubeka engcupheni okungaphezu kuka-1% ngokuhweba ngakunye.


Imfihlo #4: Akukho okuhloswe ukwenza inzuzo ukuze ukwazi ukugibela amathrendi amakhulu

Yize abalandeli bethrendi bengenakho izinhloso zenzuzo, akusho ukuthi asiphumi ekuhwebeni kwethu.

Siphuma ekuhwebeni kwethu sisebenzisa indlela yokuma elandelanayo, esikhundleni sokuba nesihloso senzuzo njengokumelana nokusekela njll.

Nazi izibonelo ezimbalwa...

Ukusekela thatha inzuzo ku-(UKOIL):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

I-Trailing stoploss ivuliwe (UKOIL):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukumelana thatha inzuzo ku-(XAU/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukuma kokulandela ku-(XAU/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ezinye zezindlela zokulandelela ukulahlekelwa kokuma kwakho yilezi:

  • I-crossover emaphakathi ehambayo
  • Intengo ivala ngaphezu kwesilinganiso esinyakazayo
  • Ukuhlukana kwesakhiwo samanani
  • Ukuhlukana kwe-trendline
  • Inombolo ye-ATR kude nendawo ephakemeyo/umkhombe

Uma ufuna ukufunda kabanzi, nazi izindlela eziyi-13 zokuphuma kwezohwebo ukuze unciphise ubungozi, futhi wandise inzuzo.

Ingxenye enzima kakhulu mayelana ne-Trend Following ukugibela abawinile. Ngoba uzobuka ukuwina okuningi okuncane kuphenduka ukulahlekelwa ngenkathi uzama ukugibela ithrendi.

Lokhu kubangela izinga eliphansi lokuwina kodwa, umvuzo omkhulu engcupheni.


Imfihlo #5: Thengisa zonke izimakethe ukwandisa amathuba akho okuthwebula amathrendi

Izimakethe zichitha isikhathi esiningi zisukela kunokuthrendayo. Ngakho-ke, kunengqondo ukubheka izimakethe ezahlukahlukene, ukwandisa amathuba akho okuthwebula amathrendi.

Abalandeli abathrendayo bahweba yonke into kusukela emalini, ezolimo, izinsimbi, amabhondi, amandla, indices, ujusi wewolintshi, izisu zengulube, njll.

Uma ukhumbula, izimali ezinkulu eziningi bezisukela engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2014…

Kepha uma ubheka izimakethe eziningi, ungathwebula ithrendi…

Ukuguquguquka okuphansi ku-(EUR/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukuguquguquka okuphansi ku-(AUD/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukuguquguquka okuhle nokuthambekela ku-(DE10YBEUR):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukuguquguquka okuhle ku-(SPX):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Iyiphi into esemqoka ongayithenga?

Ukuhweba kuzo zonke izimakethe ezahlukene kusiza ukunciphisa ukudonsa kwakho futhi kuthuthukise inzuzo yakho.

Futhi lena enye yezimfihlo ezinkulu ngemuva kwempumelelo yomlandeli wethrendi.

Manje, mhlawumbe uyazibuza:


Abalandeli be-Trend bayenza kanjani imali?

Cabanga ngalokhu:

Inkampani ebizwa nge-Orange ibihweba kakhulu kulezi zinyanga eziyisi-6 ezidlule.

I-Orange okwamanje ihweba ngo-$100 futhi ucabanga ukuthi ibiza kakhulu. Unqume ukufinyeza amasheya angu-1000 we-Orange, ngo-$100 ngenhloso yenzuzo engu-$90, ungasebenzisi ukulahlekelwa.

Usebenzisa lo mgomo wokuhweba kuzo zonke izimakethe ozithengisayo. Inzuzo encane eqondiwe ngaphandle kokulahlekelwa kokuyeka.

Ucabanga ukuthi kuzokwenzekani?

Uzowina kaningi kodwa, ekugcineni, kuzoba nokuhweba okuphambene nawe, uze uqhumise i-akhawunti yakho yokuhweba.

Manje cabanga...

Kuthiwani uma ngikolunye uhlangothi lokuhweba kwakho?

Bengingalahlekelwa kaningi kodwa, engikudingayo ukuhweba okukodwa ukuze ngikwenze konke kubuye, nokunye.

Futhi lokhu ukuhweba okufanayo okubangele ukuthi uqhume i-akhawunti yakho.

Izibonelo ezimbalwa empilweni yangempela:

  • Ukuwa Kokuphathwa Kwemali Yesikhathi Eside
  • Ukubhujiswa kwe-Bear Stearns
  • Inkinga yezezimali yango-2008

Lezi zenzakalo zenze abatshalizimali nabahwebi balahlekelwa amathani emali. Kodwa emdlalweni wesamba esingu-zero, othile uyahlulwa futhi othile uyawina.

Futhi owinile kuba Abalandeli Abathrendayo. Lona umkhawulo wethu.


Izindlela ezihlukene zokulandela okuthrendayo

Okulandelayo Okuthrendayo kungabuye kuhlukaniswe ngezindlela ezi-2 ezihlukene.

  • Ukuhweba okuhlelekile
  • Ukuhweba ngokuzikhethela


Ukuhweba okuhlelekile

Ukuhweba okuhlelekile kuchaze imithetho enquma ukungena, ukuphuma, ukulawulwa kwezinhlekelele, nokuphathwa kwezohwebo.

Le ndlela yamukelwa kabanzi yizikhwama ezinkulu zothango ezifana noDunn, Winton, kanye neMAN AHL.

Nakuba ukuhweba okuhlelekile kuzenzakalela, kusenezinqumo ezibalulekile okufanele zenziwe umphathi.

Izinqumo ezifana...

  • Ingakanani ingozi
  • Yiziphi izimakethe zokuhweba

Umphathi kufanele anqume ukuthi bungakanani ubungozi obuzokwamukela, yiziphi izimakethe okufanele zidlalwe, nokuthi angakhuphula kangakanani futhi anciphise isisekelo sokuhweba njengomsebenzi wokushintsha ukulingana. Lezi zinqumo zibaluleke kakhulu—ngokuvamile zibaluleke kakhulu kunesikhathi sokuhweba. – Ed Seykota


Ukuhweba ngokuzikhethela

Ukuhweba ngokuzikhethela kunemithetho echazwe kancane enquma ukungena, ukuphuma, ukulawula ubungozi, nokuphathwa kwezohwebo.

Kudinga ukunakwa komhwebi, ukuhweba okusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe, ngokungenelela okwengeziwe.

Le ndlela yamukelwa kabanzi ngabahwebi abancane ngabanye.

Nakuba ukuhweba ngokuzibonela kuncike kakhulu, kusaqondiswa uhlelo lokuhweba.

Ngakho qhubeka...


Ithrendi Ukulandela isu lokuhweba

Manje usufunde izimfihlo ezi-5 zokulandela Okuthrendayo. Masibeke ulwazi ukuze silusebenzise futhi sithuthukise isu lokuhweba.

Ukwakha isu lokulandela okuthrendayo, lidinga ukuphendula le mibuzo engu-7:

  1. Uhweba ngasiphi isikhathi
  2. Uzibeka engcupheni kangakanani ekuhwebeni ngakunye
  3. Yiziphi izimakethe ozithengisayo
  4. Yiziphi izimo zesu lakho lokuhweba
  5. Uzongena kuphi
  6. Uzophuma kuphi uma unephutha
  7. Uzophuma kuphi uma uqinisile

Ubude besikhathi

Kufanele ukhethe isikhathi esivumelana nobuntu bakho nohlelo.

Uma ungumuntu onomsebenzi wosuku, ukuhweba amahora ama-4 namashadi osuku kungakufanelekela.

Ukulawulwa kobungozi

Kufanele ufake engcupheni ingxenye ye-equity yakho ekuhwebeni ngakunye ukuze usinde ekudonseleni phansi okungokwemvelo. Gcina ukulahlekelwa kwakho kungabi ngaphezu kuka-1% ekuhwebeni ngakunye.

Izimakethe zomhlaba

Kufanele ukwazi ukuhweba ngezimakethe ezingaba ngu-60 kule mikhakha emi-5.

  1. Izimpahla zezolimo
  2. Izimali
  3. Izabelo
  4. Amanani
  5. Izimpahla Okungezona Ezokulima


I-Dicretionary Trend Elandela Isu Lokuhweba

Uma i-200ma ikhomba phezulu futhi intengo ingaphezulu kwayo, kusho ukuthi i-uptrend (izimo zokuhweba).

Uma kuyi-uptrend, bese ulinda “ukuhlola okubili” ekusekelweni okuguquguqukayo (usebenzisa isilinganiso sokuhamba senkathi engu-20 50).

Uma intengo ihlola ukwesekwa okuguquguqukayo kabili, bese uya isikhathi eside ekuhlolweni kwesithathu (okufakiwe kwakho).

Uma isikhathi eside, beka ukulahleka kokuma kwe-2 ATR ekungeneni kwakho (ukuphuma kwakho uma ungalungile).

Uma intengo ivuna wena, thatha inzuzo lapho ikhandlela livala ngaphezu kwama-50ma (ukuphuma kwakho uma uqinisile).

Ngokuphambene ne-downtrend.

Nazi izibonelo ezimbalwa...

Ukuhweba okuphumelelayo ku-(XAU/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukuhweba okuphumelelayo ku-(UKOIL):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ukulahlekelwa ukuhweba ku-(AUD/USD):

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Uma ukhetha ukuzithoba okuncane ekuhwebeni kwakho, cabanga ngale ndlela yokuhweba…


Uhlelo Oluhlelekile Lokulandela Okuthrendayo Olusebenzayo


Imithetho yokuhweba

  • Hamba isikhathi eside lapho intengo ivala okuphezulu kakhulu ezinsukwini zokugcina ezingu-200
  • Yiba mfushane uma intengo ivala ephansi kakhulu ezinsukwini zokugcina ezingu-200
  • Iba nokulahlekelwa kwesitobhi esilandelayo esingu-6 ATR
  • Faka engcupheni i-1% yemali yakho kuhwebo ngalunye


Izimakethe zidayiswa

  • Igolide, Ithusi, Isiliva, iPalladium, iPlatinum
  • SP 500, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, Mexican Peso, British Pound
  • I-US T-bond, BOBL, BUXL, BTP, ibhondi yaseCanada yeminyaka eyi-10
  • Amafutha Okushisa, Ukolweni, Ummbila, Amapulangwe, Ushukela


Imiphumela ye-backtest

  • Inombolo yohwebo: 937 ukuhweba
  • Isilinganiso sokuwina: 42.8%
  • Imbuyiselo yonyaka: 9.89%
  • Ukwehliswa okuphezulu okungu-24.12%.

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ithiphu yePro:

Uma uhweba izimakethe eziningi, ungathuthukisa ukubuyisela futhi unciphise ukudonsela phansi.


Manje ungahle uzibuze… “Ingabe Ukulandela Okuthrendayo kusebenza esitokweni?”

Yebo, Ukulandela Okuthrendayo kungasetshenziswa ezimakethe zamasheya kodwa ngokuhlukile okumbalwa...

#1: Gwema ukushoda kwamasheya ngoba ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imakethe yamasheya isezingeni eliphezulu. Ngakho-ke, kunenzuzo eyengeziwe ukuhlala ohlangothini olude noma ukheshi (futhi ugweme ukuthengisa okufushane).

#2: Yiba nesihlungi sokukala amasheya njengoba kunezinkulungwane zezitoko ezitholakalayo futhi udinga ukunquma ukuthi yiziphi ofuna ukuzithengisa.

Futhi nalu uhlelo olulula lokulandela i-Trend yezimakethe zamasheya…


Imithetho yokuhweba

  • Hamba isikhathi eside uma isitoko sifika phezulu ngamaviki angu-50
  • Iba nokulahlekelwa kwesitobhi esilandelanayo esingu-20%.
  • Uma kukhona izitoko eziningi ongakhetha kuzo, khetha izitoko eziphezulu ezingu-20 ezinokukhuphuka kwentengo okukhulu kakhulu kula masonto angu-50 adlule.
  • Thenga isitokwe esifinyelela ku-20 ngemali engekho ngaphezu kuka-5% eyabelwe isitoko ngasinye


Izimakethe zidayiswa

  • Amasheya avela ku-Russell 1000 index

Imiphumela ye-backtest:

  • Inombolo yohwebo: 707 ukuhweba
  • Isilinganiso sokuwina: 48.66%
  • Imbuyiselo yonyaka: 12.81%
  • Ukwehliswa okuphezulu okungu-40.75%.

Yini Okuthrendayo Okulandelayo? Abalandeli Abathrendayo Bayenza Kanjani Imali ku-XM

Ithiphu yePro:

Uma ungeza isihlungi sethrendi, ungathuthukisa ukubuyisela futhi wehlise ukudonswa phansi.

Futhi lapho unayo.

I-Trend Following System ekuvumela ukuthi wenze inzuzo ezimakethe zamabhere.

Uma sikhuluma iqiniso, iqhinga alikukhathazi kangako. Esikhundleni salokho, kufanele ugxile ekulawuleni ubungozi bakho, indawo yonke yezimakethe kanye nokuvumelana kokuhweba.

**Umshwana wokuzihlangula: Ngeke ngibe nesibopho sanoma iyiphi inzuzo noma ukulahlekelwa okuvela ngokusebenzisa lawa masu okuhweba. Ukusebenza okwedlule akusona inkomba yokusebenza kwesikhathi esizayo. Sicela wenze okwakho ukunakekela ngaphambi kokufaka imali oyisebenze kanzima engozini.

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